Trump TCJA Renewal 2026 Tracker

House passed H.R. 1 (the "American Workers and Family Tax Cut Act of 2026") on March 14, 2026 by 218-211 along party lines. The Senate Finance Committee marked up its version on April 8, 2026 with bipartisan amendments expanding child tax credit and trimming SALT cap restoration. Senate floor vote is scheduled for late June 2026. If passed, conference committee resolves House-Senate differences by August 2026 with reconciliation passage targeted before Aug 31 budget recess. Without passage, TCJA individual provisions sunset Dec 31, 2025 — meaning 2026 tax year (filed early 2027) would default to pre-TCJA rules. Treasury and IRS are issuing dual draft 1040 forms covering both scenarios. Track status via congress.gov H.R. 1 / S. 89.

Reversion would push every bracket above 12% higher. 2026 single-filer brackets if not renewed (vs current TCJA brackets): 10% to $11,600 (unchanged), 15% to $47,150 (was 12%), 25% to $100,525 (was 22%), 28% to $191,950 (was 24%), 33% to $487,450 (was 32%), 35% to $626,350 (was 35%), 39.6% above (was 37%). Married-filing-jointly thresholds roughly double. Net impact: a $150K single filer pays ~$3,400 more federal tax; a $400K MFJ couple pays ~$7,800 more; a $1M couple pays ~$32,000 more. Standard deduction also drops from $14,600 single / $29,200 MFJ back to $7,300 / $14,600 — partially offset by personal exemption restoration ($5,300 per person 2026 inflation-adjusted).

The $10,000 SALT cap (state and local taxes) is one of the most-contested provisions. If TCJA expires fully, the cap disappears and high-tax-state itemizers can deduct unlimited state income + property tax. Senate Finance markup proposes $40,000 SALT cap restored for incomes under $500K, $20,000 for incomes above, with full sunset for incomes above $1M. House version keeps $10,000 cap. Impact (NY, NJ, CA, IL, MA, CT residents): a $300K MFJ with $25K state tax + $15K property tax saves ~$11,000 federal tax under no-cap return; ~$8,000 under Senate compromise; ~$0 under House version. SALT workaround entity (PTE) elections at the state level remain available regardless and continue to be the primary high-income mitigator.

Section 199A (20% Qualified Business Income deduction for sole-props, S-corps, partnerships) is currently scheduled to sunset Dec 31, 2025 absent extension. House H.R. 1 makes 199A permanent at the 20% rate; Senate Finance proposes phasing to 23% by 2030. Without extension, post-2025 pass-through income is fully taxed at ordinary rates — a $200K Schedule C earner loses ~$8,800 in federal tax savings. Impact heaviest on real estate professionals, consultants, doctors not in SSTB phase-out, and tech contractors. Plan: if TCJA renewal looks unlikely by July 2026, accelerate 2026 income recognition into 2025 (last year of guaranteed 199A) where possible — bonus invoicing, deferred compensation acceleration, recognized capital gains.

TCJA roughly doubled the estate/gift tax exemption from ~$5.49M (2017) to $13.61M per person 2025 / $13.99M 2026 (inflation adjusted). Sunset reverts to pre-TCJA ~$7.0M per person (also inflation-adjusted). House H.R. 1 makes the higher exemption permanent; Senate Finance trims to $11.0M with portability preserved. Impact for $20M MFJ estate: under sunset, ~$13M of estate becomes taxable at 40% = $5.2M federal estate tax (was $0 under TCJA). 2026 planning window: high-net-worth families using SLATs, GRATs, and dynasty trusts to "lock in" the higher exemption via gifting before potential sunset have until Dec 31, 2025; the IRS confirmed in 2019 (Treas. Reg. 20.2010-1) that exemption locked-in via gifts will not be clawed back at death even if exemption later drops.

TCJA expanded CTC from $1,000 to $2,000 per qualifying child under 17, with $1,400 refundable. Sunset would revert to $1,000 per child with $0 refundable. Senate Finance bipartisan proposal expands further to $2,500 per child under 6 and $2,000 for 6-17, with $1,800 refundable, plus a new $500 dependent credit for non-child dependents (currently $500 ODC sunsets). Impact for a 2-child MFJ family at $90K AGI: $4,000 under current TCJA, $5,000 under Senate proposal, $2,000 under sunset. Refundability matters most for low-income families — $1,800 refundable means a $0-tax-liability family gets $1,800/child as a check.

No — make decisions on probability-weighted scenarios. Three buckets: (1) DECISIONS THAT WORK BOTH WAYS: HSA/401(k)/IRA contributions, charitable giving (always deductible if itemizing), Roth conversions in low-income years (tax brackets matter but conversions still rational). (2) DECISIONS LEANING SUNSET: accelerate income into 2025-Q4 if possible (catch QBI before sunset, catch lower brackets), prepay 2025 state taxes if itemizing under TCJA caps, gift max exemption to descendants/SLAT before any potential exemption cut. (3) DECISIONS LEANING RENEWAL: defer Roth conversions to lower-bracket years post-renewal, hold appreciated assets for higher exemption preservation, time 401(k)→Roth IRA conversions for income-low transition years. Watch July 2026 news closely — Senate vote is the inflection.

Most states (CA, NY, MA, NJ, CT, OR, MN, WI, GA, NC, IA, etc.) couple their tax code to federal rules but with explicit decoupling from specific TCJA provisions. Selective decoupling examples: NY/NJ/CA decoupled from the SALT cap (state-level workaround via PTE election remains viable). NY/CA decoupled from the QBI deduction (no state-level pass-through deduction even if federal continues). Several states (MN, IL) decoupled from bonus depreciation. Sunset reversion creates state-by-state ripple effects: states tied to federal taxable income see automatic state tax increases without legislative action; states tied to federal AGI see no automatic change. Check your state Department of Revenue 2026 guidance — most are publishing Sunset/Renewal dual scenarios.